Budget Baller
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.00
3.99 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $1.79 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.92%
15.1K openings, odds method
Variance
46.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2.003.99 coins$240481 coins120.4x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2.003.99 coins$240481 coins120.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.00 | 89.94% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%other 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Mythical 1.0%mil spec 6.0%industrial 32.0%#d32ee6 3.0%classified 5.0%#8847ff 21.9%consumer 30.0%best hit $658 (329.6x)