Budget Pumper
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.15
2.3 coins
Advertised RTP
89.81%
EV $1.03 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.88%
10.4K openings, odds method
Variance
23.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.15 | 89.81% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.5%industrial 1.5%mil spec 16.0%consumer 15.0%blue 5.0%#4b69ff 15.0%milspec 16.0%#87c7ff 16.0%Common 14.0%best hit $106 (92.09x)