Bulletstorm
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.49
8.98 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $4.04 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.54%
414 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.88% – 128.20%, 414 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 414 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.49 | 89.96% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 1.0%covert 5.5%classified 6.5%mil spec 4.5%Consumer Grade 2.0%Industrial Grade 2.3%restricted 2.5%consumer 75.8%best hit —