Butterfly mania
A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,214.08
10,428 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
95.88%
32 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$5,21410,428 coins$12.1K24,151 coins2.32x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldRhy$5,21410,428 coins$12.1K24,151 coins2.32x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$5,21410,428 coins$10.6K21,246 coins2.04x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$5,21410,428 coins$10.6K21,246 coins2.04x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$5,21410,428 coins$10.4K20,866 coins2.00x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$5,21410,428 coins$10.4K20,866 coins2.00x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5,21410,428 coins$9,39818,795 coins1.80x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5,21410,428 coins$9,39818,795 coins1.80x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5,21410,428 coins$9,39818,795 coins1.80x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyRhy$5,21410,428 coins$7,33514,669 coins1.41x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$5,21410,428 coins$1,9183,835 coins0.37x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$5,21410,428 coins$2,1694,338 coins0.42x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$5,21410,428 coins$5,75411,508 coins1.10x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$5,21410,428 coins$1,8653,729 coins0.36x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$5,21410,428 coins$2,6435,286 coins0.51x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$5,21410,428 coins$2,1694,338 coins0.42x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Rhy$5,21410,428 coins$2,1564,312 coins0.41x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$5,21410,428 coins$2,9355,870 coins0.56x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$5,21410,428 coins$10.4K20,866 coins2.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $12.1K (2.32x)