Bwukn Souvenirs

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,231.73

2,463 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1,108.55 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.91%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

47.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

52.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

19.5%90.0%160.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 9.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	89.91%±69.7	—	odds
30d	20	89.91%±69.7	—	odds
All	20	89.91%±69.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$112K 223,312 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$41.2K 82,490 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$26.7K 53,347 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$24.8K 49,625 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$7,335 14,669 coins	6.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$4,916 9,833 coins	4.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 100	$4,761 9,523 coins	4.3%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$3,498 6,995 coins	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$2,813 5,625 coins	2.5%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$2,643 5,286 coins	2.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	41.0%	$1,884 3,769 coins	69.7%	10	8.2	1.22×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	10.6%	$57.70 115 coins	0.6%	1	2.1	0.47×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified	10.6%	$57.32 115 coins	0.5%	3	2.1	1.42×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	10.6%	$56.76 114 coins	0.5%	1	2.1	0.47×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.6%	$52.31 105 coins	0.5%	2	2.1	0.95×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	10.6%	$51.37 103 coins	0.5%	2	2.1	0.95×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.