Cache

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$298.42

597 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $268.57 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.74%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

56.0%84.8%113.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 6.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	84.74%±27.9	—	odds
30d	6	84.74%±27.9	—	odds
All	6	84.74%±27.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$1,973 3,946 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$1,252 2,504 coins	3.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$818 1,635 coins	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 143	$653 1,306 coins	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 143	$506 1,012 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	97.2%	$253 506 coins	91.5%	6	5.8	1.03×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.