Canals
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.15
36.3 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.84%
3,470 openings, odds method
Variance
106.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 385
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,470 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 21.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 1,111 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 15.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 1,000 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 17.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire | 1 in 500 | $954 1,908 coins | 11.7% | 13 | 6.9 | 1.87× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 250 | $450 900 coins | 11.0% | 22 | 13.9 | 1.59× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 111 | $121 242 coins | 6.7% | 34 | 31.2 | 1.09× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 100 | $81.27 163 coins | 5.0% | 49 | 34.7 | 1.41× |
| CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 97.2% | $1.90 3.8 coins | 11.3% | 3,340 | 3374.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$18.1536.3 coins$2,8775,753 coins158.5x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$18.1536.3 coins$2,8775,753 coins158.5x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$18.1536.3 coins$2,8775,753 coins158.5x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendarycherrylea$18.1536.3 coins$2,8775,753 coins158.5x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$18.1536.3 coins$2,8775,753 coins158.5x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$18.1536.3 coins$2,8135,625 coins155.0x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$18.1536.3 coins$2,8135,625 coins155.0x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$18.1536.3 coins$2,8135,625 coins155.0x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$18.1536.3 coins$2,8135,625 coins155.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.15 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.5%legendary 0.1%Covert 0.2%knifes 1.0%#4b69ff 97.2%best hit $4,962 (273.4x)