Cappuccino Assassino
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.87
63.74 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.68 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.92%
66 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 66 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3$31.8763.74 coins$316631 coins9.90x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.87 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.1%covert 5.3%classified 0.3%gold 1.4%covert knife 3.5%Industrial Grade 2.0%mil spec 84.5%industrial 3.0%best hit —