Cartel Karambit

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.79

9.58 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4.31 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.82%

1,677 openings, odds method

Variance

11.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.57%±39.67288 openings

7 days

81.85%±17.811,429 openings

30 days

82.82%±16.441,677 openings

since tracking started

82.82%±16.441,677 openings

40.5%80.8%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	288	80.57%±39.7	−0.5σ	odds
7d	1,429	81.85%±17.8	−0.9σ	odds
30d	1,677	82.82%±16.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	1,677	82.82%±16.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,677 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,258 2,517 coins	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$799 1,598 coins	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$508 1,016 coins	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$259 517 coins	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$57.54 115 coins	40.0%	50	50.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$14.60 29.19 coins	16.9%	73	83.9	0.87×
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$9.98 19.95 coins	11.6%	73	83.9	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$7.51 15.01 coins	8.7%	97	83.9	1.16×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$5.10 10.2 coins	5.9%	75	83.9	0.89×
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$3.26 6.51 coins	3.8%	93	83.9	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$1.53 3.05 coins	1.8%	89	83.9	1.06×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	67.0%	$0.39 0.77 coins	6.0%	1,127	1122.9	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$4.799.58 coins$0.390.77 coins0.08x1h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covertiMadyyyy$4.799.58 coins$1.533.05 coins0.32x1h

Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$4.799.58 coins$0.390.77 coins0.08x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.79	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%covert knife 3.0%classified 20.0%#4b69ff 67.0%best hit —