Cashout
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.24
70.48 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.71 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.21%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 25.0% | $100 200 coins | 79.0% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $26.67 53.33 coins | 21.0% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeSorhex$35.2470.48 coins$26.6753.33 coins0.76x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.24 | 89.99% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —