Castle
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$390.19
780 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $351.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.25%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon | 1 in 100 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 17.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 45 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 40 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 37 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 30 | $1,065 2,130 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 83.2% | $101 202 coins | 24.0% | 21 | 20.0 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$390780 coins$1,1382,276 coins2.92x
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$390780 coins$1,1292,258 coins2.89x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $390 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listeduncommon 1.0%covert 12.8%Covert 3.0%restricted 83.2%best hit $1,138 (2.92x)