Cat walk
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.31
14.61 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $6.57 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.74%
1,381 openings, odds method
Variance
22.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,381 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $315 630 coins | 47.9% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $153 306 coins | 23.3% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $12.79 25.57 coins | 3.9% | 28 | 27.6 | 1.01× |
| Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 7.7% | 147 | 138.1 | 1.06× |
| Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon | 14.0% | $3.01 6.01 coins | 6.4% | 192 | 193.3 | 0.99× |
| Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 19.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 3.7% | 257 | 262.4 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 23.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.5% | 340 | 317.6 | 1.07× |
| XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $0.80 1.6 coins | 3.7% | 388 | 414.3 | 0.94× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified$7.3114.61 coins$5.0410.08 coins0.69x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$7.3114.61 coins$153306 coins20.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.31 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%Legendary 2.0%classified 40.0%other 14.0%mil spec 19.0%restricted 23.0%best hit —