Cawk On The Beach
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.53
47.05 coins
Advertised RTP
88.98%
EV $20.93 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.76%
212 openings, odds method
Variance
18.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 212 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $935 1,870 coins | 44.7% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $338 676 coins | 16.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $182 365 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes | 1 in 50 | $117 234 coins | 11.2% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | CaliCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $91.19 182 coins | 8.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $82.97 166 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 67 | $61.37 123 coins | 4.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 90.0% | $0.05 0.1 coins | 0.2% | 186 | 190.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir XM1014 | CaliCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$23.5347.05 coins$91.19182 coins3.88x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.53 | 88.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 3.0%knifes 2.0%industrial 2.0%classified 1.5%blue 91.5%best hit —