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Cheeky Shaker

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,376.01
2,752 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,238.40 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.25%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
16 openings · below min
30 days
16 openings · below min
since tracking started
16 openings · below min
-0.5%68.5%137.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d1647.25%±89.8—odds
30d1647.25%±89.8—odds
All1647.25%±89.8—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$24.8K 49,625 coins2.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 200$12.1K 24,151 coins4.9%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 125$9,925 19,850 coins6.4%00.1—
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$9,355 18,710 coins7.6%00.2—
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$8,338 16,675 coins6.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 100$7,714 15,428 coins6.2%00.2—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$7,137 14,274 coins5.8%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 50$6,648 13,296 coins10.7%00.3—
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 50$6,328 12,655 coins10.2%00.3—
Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary1 in 40$4,137 8,274 coins8.4%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 33$3,617 7,234 coins8.8%10.5—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 33$3,140 6,279 coins7.6%00.5—
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 15$2,023 4,047 coins10.9%31.12.80×
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert25.0%$125 251 coins2.5%44.01.00×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert25.0%$50.58 101 coins1.0%34.00.75×
P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial25.4%$12.58 25.15 coins0.3%54.11.23×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,3762,752 coins$3,6177,234 coins2.63x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3762,752 coins$2,0234,047 coins1.47x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3762,752 coins$2,0234,047 coins1.47x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3762,752 coins$2,0234,047 coins1.47x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3762,752 coins$2,0234,047 coins1.47x
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1,3762,752 coins$125251 coins0.09x
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,3762,752 coins$2,0234,047 coins1.47x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,3762,752 coins$3,6177,234 coins2.63x
P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,3762,752 coins$12.5825.15 coins0.01x
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,3762,752 coins$50.58101 coins0.04x
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1,3762,752 coins$125251 coins0.09x
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covertdivaxxdiva$1,3762,752 coins$50.58101 coins0.04x
P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,3762,752 coins$12.5825.15 coins0.01x
P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New)weapon · industrial$1,3762,752 coins$12.5825.15 coins0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$1,37690.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 58.4%extraordinary 4.5%remarkable 2.0%legendary 9.7%industrial 25.4%best hit $3,617 (2.63x)