Cheetah

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$432.87

866 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $389.58 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.05%

140 openings, odds method

Variance

15.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

79.05%±65.98140 openings

30 days

79.05%±65.98140 openings

since tracking started

79.05%±65.98140 openings

-0.5%112.5%225.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	65.46%±159.3	—	odds
7d	140	79.05%±66.0	−0.3σ	odds
30d	140	79.05%±66.0	−0.3σ	odds
All	140	79.05%±66.0	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 667	$36.3K 72,651 coins	14.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$15.1K 30,112 coins	9.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$7,137 14,274 coins	9.2%	0	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$2,643 5,286 coins	13.6%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50	$1,853 3,705 coins	9.5%	4	2.8	1.43×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$1,638 3,277 coins	8.4%	4	2.8	1.43×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 40	$1,258 2,517 coins	8.1%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	35.0%	$245 491 coins	22.0%	49	49.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	55.6%	$39.19 78.38 coins	5.6%	79	77.8	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433866 coins$15.1K30,112 coins34.78x2d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$433866 coins$1,8533,705 coins4.28x5d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$433866 coins$1,6383,277 coins3.78x1h

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classifiedpiyeyooo$433866 coins$1,6383,277 coins3.78x22h

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$433866 coins$1,6383,277 coins3.78x2d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$433866 coins$1,6383,277 coins3.78x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$433866 coins$1,2582,517 coins2.91x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife$433866 coins$245491 coins0.57x1h

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$433866 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.09x1h

★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife$433866 coins$245491 coins0.57x1h

MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$433866 coins$1,6383,277 coins3.78x1h

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$433866 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.09x1h

★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knifeMoon1025$433866 coins$245491 coins0.57x1h

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert$433866 coins$39.1978.38 coins0.09x22h

★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife$433866 coins$245491 coins0.57x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$433	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.8%covert 62.1%classified 2.0%covert knife 35.0%best hit $15.1K (34.78x)