Chocolate
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.44
50.88 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $22.90 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.15%
266 openings, odds method
Variance
12.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 266 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$25.4450.88 coins$52.68105 coins2.07x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialJohnDoe77$25.4450.88 coins$94.29189 coins3.71x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.44 | 90.01% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 6.1%Extraordinary 0.5%extraordinary 9.8%mil spec 1.0%Industrial 1.0%industrial 8.0%milspec 4.0%#87c7ff 8.0%#4b69ff 61.6%best hit —