Christmas Cracker

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4,480.13

8,960 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4,032.12 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.69%

348 openings, odds method

Variance

9.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64 openings · below min

7 days

77.69%±31.76348 openings

30 days

77.69%±31.76348 openings

since tracking started

77.69%±31.76348 openings

-0.5%72.0%144.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	64	69.58%±74.1	—	odds
7d	348	77.69%±31.8	−0.8σ	odds
30d	348	77.69%±31.8	−0.8σ	odds
All	348	77.69%±31.8	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$73.5K 147,047 coins	18.2%	5	3.5	1.44×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$72.4K 144,822 coins	18.0%	2	3.5	0.57×
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$52.4K 104,780 coins	13.0%	1	3.5	0.29×
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$41.2K 82,490 coins	10.2%	3	3.5	0.86×
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100	$36.5K 72,902 coins	9.0%	2	3.5	0.57×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$36.3K 72,651 coins	9.0%	6	3.5	1.72×
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$31.6K 63,128 coins	7.8%	1	3.5	0.29×
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$25.5K 51,019 coins	6.3%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$18.7K 37,392 coins	4.6%	5	3.5	1.44×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$15.1K 30,112 coins	3.7%	2	3.5	0.57×
P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	17.0%	$0.49 0.98 coins	0.0%	58	59.2	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$0.48 0.96 coins	0.0%	56	59.2	0.95×
Sawed-Off \| Parched (Factory New)weapon · Common	17.0%	$0.46 0.91 coins	0.0%	77	59.2	1.30×
SG 553 \| Bleached (Factory New)weapon · Common	17.0%	$0.44 0.88 coins	0.0%	63	59.2	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	16.0%	$0.41 0.83 coins	0.0%	49	55.7	0.88×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.39 0.77 coins	0.0%	15	20.9	0.72×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,4808,960 coins$73.5K147,047 coins16.41x4d

Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,4808,960 coins$73.5K147,047 coins16.41x5d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,4808,960 coins$72.4K144,822 coins16.16x4d

Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableBlankTorch7918$4,4808,960 coins$52.4K104,780 coins11.69x1d

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,4808,960 coins$41.2K82,490 coins9.21x24m

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,4808,960 coins$41.2K82,490 coins9.21x12h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$4,4808,960 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x24m

SG 553 | Bleached (Factory New)weapon · Common$4,4808,960 coins$0.440.88 coins0.00x24m

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,4808,960 coins$41.2K82,490 coins9.21x24m

Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New)weapon · Common$4,4808,960 coins$0.460.91 coins0.00x24m

P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec$4,4808,960 coins$0.390.77 coins0.00x24m

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4,4808,960 coins$0.480.96 coins0.00x24m

P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec$4,4808,960 coins$0.390.77 coins0.00x24m

P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeMoon1025$4,4808,960 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x24m

SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$4,4808,960 coins$0.410.83 coins0.00x13h

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4,4808,960 coins$0.480.96 coins0.00x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4,480	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.0%remarkable 3.0%covert 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%Consumer Grade 17.0%restricted 17.0%Common 34.0%#4b69ff 16.0%milspec 6.0%best hit $73.5K (16.41x)