gambatracker
Live
Big wins
2026 Hit Slot$4,50445.00xBlackjack$2,0002.00xSalon Privé Blackjack L$10K2.00xJapanese Speed Blackjack J$1,4011.33xWanted Dead or a Wild$38.53173.0xGates of Olympus 2500$1,2221.23xBlackjack$1,0002.00xCase Battles$2,0482.75xBCGAME Silver Blackjack 2$1,6012.00xSupersized$11K4,115xSweet Baklava$80.27100.8xCloud Princess$1,4351.91xVideo Poker$3,2004.00xMoonshine$1,15716.45xBig Bass Vegas Double Down Deluxe$439146.5xBlackjack$2,5002.50xGolden Wealth Baccarat$16K3.33xBlackjack$1,0002.00xSalon Privé Blackjack N$23.8K2.50xStonks$1,3572.63xBlackjack$2,0002.00xRoo Bonanza$105K4.75xSalon Privé Blackjack L$12.5K2.50xFist of Destruction Megamultiplier$15.68156.4x

Christmas Tree

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$254.72
509 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $229.24 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.13%
138 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
8 openings · below min
7 days
76.46%±52.31134 openings
30 days
75.13%±51.55138 openings
since tracking started
75.13%±51.55138 openings
-0.5%128.5%257.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h842.90%±214.1—odds
7d13476.46%±52.3−0.5σodds
30d13875.13%±51.5−0.6σodds
All13875.13%±51.5−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$18.7K 37,392 coins4.1%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$12.1K 24,151 coins5.3%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$7,082 14,163 coins6.2%00.3—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 500$6,282 12,564 coins5.5%10.3—
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 500$3,722 7,444 coins3.2%00.3—
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 333$3,134 6,269 coins4.1%00.4—
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 333$2,730 5,460 coins3.6%20.4—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 33$1,048 2,096 coins13.7%44.40.91×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 25$710 1,420 coins12.4%25.80.34×
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 20$578 1,155 coins12.6%37.30.41×
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 14$506 1,012 coins15.4%510.20.49×
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$206 413 coins9.0%1714.61.16×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert20.0%$52.31 105 coins4.6%2829.20.96×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary49.6%$1.69 3.37 coins0.4%8472.51.16×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$255509 coins$6,28212,564 coins24.66x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary$255509 coins$2,7305,460 coins10.72x
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendaryEliteRift1189$255509 coins$2,7305,460 coins10.72x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$255509 coins$1,0482,096 coins4.11x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertprudent$255509 coins$1,0482,096 coins4.11x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$255509 coins$1,0482,096 coins4.11x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$255509 coins$1,0482,096 coins4.11x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$255509 coins$7101,420 coins2.79x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$255509 coins$7101,420 coins2.79x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$255509 coins$5781,155 coins2.27x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$255509 coins$1.693.37 coins0.01x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$255509 coins$5061,012 coins1.99x
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$255509 coins$52.31105 coins0.21x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendarySanityy$255509 coins$1.693.37 coins0.01x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$255509 coins$206413 coins0.81x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$255509 coins$1.693.37 coins0.01x
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$255509 coins$52.31105 coins0.21x
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSanityy$255509 coins$52.31105 coins0.21x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$255509 coins$206413 coins0.81x
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$255509 coins$1.693.37 coins0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$25590.00%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 5.3%covert 30.8%legendary 0.3%Covert 4.0%restricted 10.0%Legendary 49.6%best hit $6,282 (24.66x)