Cloud Nine
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.02
4.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $1.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.41%
4,715 openings, odds method
Variance
47.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,715 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $110 219 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 200 | $94.29 189 coins | 26.0% | 23 | 23.6 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $19.17 38.33 coins | 31.7% | 130 | 141.4 | 0.92× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 20 | $5.23 10.46 coins | 14.4% | 249 | 235.8 | 1.06× |
| P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 20 | $1.87 3.74 coins | 5.2% | 204 | 235.8 | 0.87× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 10.0% | $1.10 2.19 coins | 6.0% | 489 | 471.5 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 76.4% | $0.10 0.21 coins | 4.4% | 3,620 | 3601.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.02 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%industrial 79.9%#87c7ff 15.0%Uncommon 5.0%best hit —