Clouds
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.03
28.06 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.63 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.54%
1,805 openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,805 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$14.0328.06 coins$6331,265 coins45.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.03 | 89.99% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.2%other 0.2%Knives 0.3%red 2.0%Immortal 2.0%restricted 3.0%Mythical 4.0%#8847ff 79.3%best hit $633 (45.10x)