Coconut Crash
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.68
57.35 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.81 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.45%
445 openings, odds method
Variance
21.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 49
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 445 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$28.6857.35 coins$1,3812,761 coins48.15x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert$28.6857.35 coins$5201,041 coins18.15x
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CovertNeowise$28.6857.35 coins$5201,041 coins18.15x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.68 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 1.0%covert 2.2%Classified 0.1%classified 0.1%epic 0.1%Covert 0.7%Extraordinary 0.7%consumer 95.0%best hit $1,381 (48.15x)