Coinflip Dune
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.09
26.18 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $11.78 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.65%
123 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 50.0% | $23.56 47.11 coins | 100.0% | 64 | 61.5 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 59 | 61.5 | 0.96× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.09 | 89.99% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —