Compass
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.40
38.8 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $17.46 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.70%
505 openings, odds method
Variance
41.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 72
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$19.4038.8 coins$1,0362,071 coins53.38x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$19.4038.8 coins$7101,420 coins36.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.40 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.4%legendary 0.1%Covert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%sunny 0.5%restricted 7.0%mil spec 91.6%best hit $1,036 (53.38x)