Connector
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.47
94.93 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $42.72 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.30%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $150 300 coins | 35.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $101 201 coins | 23.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | VariCamo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 10.0% | $75.08 150 coins | 17.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $50.22 100 coins | 11.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $25.74 51.47 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $10.11 20.21 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.50× |
| MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New)weapon · #777777 | 20.0% | $2.55 5.1 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$47.4794.93 coins$50.22100 coins1.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.47 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%covert knife 10.0%other 10.0%extraordinary 10.0%mil spec 10.0%industrial 10.0%restricted 20.0%#777777 20.0%best hit —