Count Down
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.56
43.11 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $19.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.43%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $493 987 coins | 25.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $251 501 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $83.56 167 coins | 12.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $81.41 163 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 33 | $75.70 151 coins | 11.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 33 | $51.43 103 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $15.21 30.42 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon | 81.0% | $3.01 6.01 coins | 12.5% | 51 | 47.0 | 1.09× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.56 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 6.0%restricted 1.0%mil spec 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%Industrial Grade 3.0%other 84.0%best hit —