Cozy Chicken
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.68
1.36 coins
Advertised RTP
89.44%
EV $0.61 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.87%
25.6K openings, odds method
Variance
54.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $75.38 151 coins | 31.0% | 57 | 64.0 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $50.58 101 coins | 20.8% | 65 | 64.0 | 1.02× |
| Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon | 1 in 400 | $31.00 62 coins | 12.7% | 66 | 64.0 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 400 | $18.01 36.01 coins | 7.4% | 57 | 64.0 | 0.89× |
| MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 100 | $12.04 24.08 coins | 19.8% | 257 | 255.9 | 1.00× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 100 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 4.2% | 233 | 255.9 | 0.91× |
| G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.3% | 473 | 511.9 | 0.92× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.8% | 24,385 | 24313.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.68 | 89.44% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%uncommon 0.3%industrial 0.3%consumer 1.0%#4b69ff 96.0%mil spec 2.0%best hit $75.38 (110.9x)