Crisp
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.23
2.46 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $1.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.77%
3,232 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,232 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $256 512 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $7.39 14.77 coins | 6.7% | 39 | 32.3 | 1.21× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $5.88 11.75 coins | 10.6% | 62 | 64.6 | 0.96× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $5.78 11.56 coins | 26.1% | 152 | 161.6 | 0.94× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $2.67 5.34 coins | 16.9% | 223 | 226.2 | 0.99× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $1.66 3.32 coins | 15.0% | 333 | 323.2 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $1.59 3.18 coins | 21.6% | 466 | 484.8 | 0.96× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 60.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.8% | 1,957 | 1938.9 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.23 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%red 1.0%restricted 2.0%classified 15.0%Legendary 15.0%#4b69ff 60.0%best hit —