Price
$7.51
15.01 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.75 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.94%
562 openings, odds method
Variance
10.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 562 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumer | 1 in 100 | $167 335 coins | 24.8% | 10 | 5.6 | 1.78× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 50 | $113 226 coins | 33.5% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.89× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 40 | $51.63 103 coins | 19.1% | 17 | 14.1 | 1.21× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $11.52 23.04 coins | 8.5% | 26 | 28.1 | 0.93× |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $7.24 14.47 coins | 5.4% | 25 | 28.1 | 0.89× |
| R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 13 | $3.10 6.19 coins | 3.4% | 54 | 42.1 | 1.28× |
| R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $1.97 3.93 coins | 2.0% | 29 | 39.3 | 0.74× |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 70.0% | $0.32 0.63 coins | 3.3% | 391 | 393.4 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedYadartanyan$7.5115.01 coins$7.2414.47 coins0.96x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.51 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedconsumer 8.5%Classified 4.5%covert 5.0%classified 5.0%restricted 7.0%violet 70.0%best hit —