Cry Baby
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.06
0.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.05 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.97%
22.2K openings, odds method
Variance
19756.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 322
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $6.00 12 coins | 12.1% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| UMP-45 | Indigo (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 1,000 | $5.63 11.26 coins | 11.4% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× |
| Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 1,000 | $5.47 10.94 coins | 11.1% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 769 | $5.43 10.86 coins | 14.3% | 30 | 28.8 | 1.04× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 504 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 20.2% | 50 | 44.0 | 1.14× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 10.0% | 22,023 | 22031.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.06 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%consumer 0.1%mil spec 0.1%restricted 0.2%#4b69ff 99.4%best hit —