Crystal Key
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.26
0.52 coins
Advertised RTP
89.67%
EV $0.23 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.86%
17.9K openings, odds method
Variance
10.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 47.2% | 348 | 358.8 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $2.04 4.07 coins | 26.2% | 527 | 538.2 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 25 | $0.35 0.7 coins | 6.0% | 684 | 717.6 | 0.95× |
| G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 20 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 5.9% | 931 | 897.0 | 1.04× |
| Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 1 in 17 | $0.15 0.3 coins | 3.9% | 1,108 | 1076.4 | 1.03× |
| SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 6.4% | 2,679 | 2691.0 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 2.7% | 4,510 | 4485.0 | 1.01× |
| FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.7% | 7,153 | 7176.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.26 | 89.67% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%restricted 3.0%#8847ff 4.0%Mil Spec 5.0%milspec 6.0%blue 15.0%industrial 65.0%best hit —