CT-Side

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$138.26

277 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $124.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

118.40%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

57.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

6.0%118.5%231.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	118.40%±111.8	—	odds
30d	6	118.40%±111.8	—	odds
All	6	118.40%±111.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$3,617 7,234 coins	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$3,187 6,373 coins	1.3%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,250	$1,381 2,761 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,111	$1,316 2,632 coins	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 94	$774 1,548 coins	6.6%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 25	$520 1,041 coins	16.9%	1	0.2	—
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$250 500 coins	15.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$241 482 coins	14.5%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4	1 in 13	$235 470 coins	14.2%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$227 453 coins	13.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$220 440 coins	13.3%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$39.94 79.87 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$29.05 58.1 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$3.50 7 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.55 1.09 coins	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	49.1%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	3	2.9	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covertfordtransit$138277 coins$5201,041 coins3.76x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$138277 coins$227453 coins1.64x3d

Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$138277 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4$138277 coins$235470 coins1.70x3d

Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$138277 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3d

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covertfordtransit$138277 coins$5201,041 coins3.76x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$138	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.1%Classified 0.1%high 0.1%#EB4B4B 1.1%Covert 4.1%industrial 9.5%covert knife 22.5%Knives 7.5%#4b69ff 2.0%mil spec 2.0%consumer 49.1%best hit $520 (3.76x)