Cupid
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$101.59
203 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $91.43 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.90%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,699 3,398 coins | 37.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $793 1,585 coins | 17.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $315 630 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $251 503 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $114 227 coins | 14.9% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $60.29 121 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.18× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $30.88 61.75 coins | 5.7% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $12.93 25.85 coins | 2.4% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $6.72 13.44 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.83× |
| P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $4.84 9.67 coins | 0.9% | 19 | 13.3 | 1.43× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$102203 coins$1,6993,398 coins16.73x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$102203 coins$1,6993,398 coins16.73x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 47.0%covert knife 2.0%restricted 51.0%best hit $1,699 (16.73x)