Cupids AK

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.25

76.49 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $34.42 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.82%

3,913 openings, odds method

Variance

34.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

291 openings · below min

7 days

94.75%±19.213,597 openings

30 days

92.82%±18.413,913 openings

since tracking started

92.82%±18.413,913 openings

61.0%129.3%197.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	291	129.33%±67.5	—	odds
7d	3,597	94.75%±19.2	+0.5σ	odds
30d	3,913	92.82%±18.4	+0.3σ	odds
All	3,913	92.82%±18.4	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,913 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$2,694 5,388 coins	15.7%	9	7.8	1.15×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 500	$1,860 3,720 coins	10.8%	7	7.8	0.89×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,828 3,656 coins	10.6%	11	7.8	1.41×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,749 3,497 coins	10.2%	11	7.8	1.41×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,699 3,398 coins	9.9%	7	7.8	0.89×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,396 2,792 coins	8.1%	3	7.8	0.38×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$1,371 2,743 coins	8.0%	8	7.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,301 2,602 coins	7.6%	8	7.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$211 423 coins	6.1%	36	39.1	0.92×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$82.97 166 coins	4.8%	76	78.3	0.97×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$51.39 103 coins	3.0%	74	78.3	0.95×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$17.14 34.28 coins	1.5%	96	117.4	0.82×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$16.67 33.34 coins	1.5%	120	117.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20	$9.27 18.53 coins	1.3%	225	195.7	1.15×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$6.27 12.54 coins	0.9%	202	195.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	77.4%	$0.04 0.08 coins	0.1%	3,020	3028.7	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$2,6945,388 coins70.44x18h

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$2,6945,388 coins70.44x2d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$2,6945,388 coins70.44x3d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$2,6945,388 coins70.44x4d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$2,6945,388 coins70.44x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$38.2576.49 coins$1,8603,720 coins48.63x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$38.2576.49 coins$0.040.08 coins0.00x1h

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$51.39103 coins1.34x1h

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$38.2576.49 coins$0.040.08 coins0.00x1h

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert$38.2576.49 coins$51.39103 coins1.34x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restrictednigxoo$38.2576.49 coins$6.2712.54 coins0.16x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted$38.2576.49 coins$6.2712.54 coins0.16x1h

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$38.2576.49 coins$0.040.08 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$38.25	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.2%#EB4B4B 0.2%classified 5.2%red 5.0%restricted 5.0%Uncommon 77.4%best hit $2,694 (70.44x)