Cursed Loadout
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.83
55.65 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $25.04 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.93%
141 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $333 666 coins | 88.6% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| P250 | Digital Architect (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 15 | $33.09 66.18 coins | 8.8% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 15 | $3.35 6.69 coins | 0.9% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 15 | $3.03 6.06 coins | 0.8% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 15 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 0.8% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 15 | $0.30 0.6 coins | 0.1% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |
| G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 15 | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 53.4% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 77 | 75.3 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.83 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.7%restricted 6.7%pink 6.7%Consumer Grade 6.7%other 6.7%mil spec 6.7%consumer 6.7%#4b69ff 53.4%best hit —