Da Prince
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$98.01
196 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $88.20 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
158.04%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$98.01196 coins$2,9355,870 coins29.95x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$98.01196 coins$1,0182,037 coins10.39x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$98.01196 coins$8911,782 coins9.09x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$98.01196 coins$8911,782 coins9.09x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$98.01196 coins$7791,558 coins7.95x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$98.01196 coins$8911,782 coins9.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $98.01 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.7%legendary 0.1%covert knife 3.8%classified 1.3%Covert 1.3%mil spec 29.5%Ancient 29.5%best hit $2,935 (29.95x)