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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$206.67
413 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $186.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.63%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$207413 coins$1,8533,705 coins8.96x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$207413 coins$62.66125 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $207 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.5%other 8.0%Classified 2.0%gold 6.0%mil spec 7.0%classified 8.0%Consumer Grade 59.5%best hit $1,853 (8.96x)