Data
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.21
2.42 coins
Advertised RTP
89.75%
EV $1.09 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.37%
1,502 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,502 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $48.14 96.27 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 5.9% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 111 | $15.38 30.75 coins | 12.7% | 15 | 13.5 | 1.11× |
| P90 | Sunset Lily (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 91 | $15.13 30.25 coins | 15.3% | 11 | 16.5 | 0.67× |
| P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $7.54 15.08 coins | 20.8% | 46 | 45.1 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $6.00 12 coins | 11.0% | 20 | 30.0 | 0.67× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 28 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 18.2% | 60 | 54.1 | 1.11× |
| Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 40.0% | $0.30 0.6 coins | 11.0% | 582 | 600.8 | 0.97× |
| Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 49.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 764 | 736.0 | 1.04× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.75%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.21 | 89.75% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 1.2%industrial 1.1%classified 5.0%#8847ff 3.6%mil spec 40.0%consumer 49.0%best hit —