Death

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.76

31.52 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $14.18 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.12%

2,294 openings, odds method

Variance

75.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

53.13%±103.31273 openings

7 days

71.97%±42.151,640 openings

30 days

70.12%±35.642,294 openings

since tracking started

70.12%±35.642,294 openings

-0.5%78.3%157.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	273	53.13%±103.3	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,640	71.97%±42.1	−0.8σ	odds
30d	2,294	70.12%±35.6	−1.1σ	odds
All	2,294	70.12%±35.6	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,294 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,000	$5,754 11,508 coins	20.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,258 2,517 coins	8.9%	3	2.3	1.31×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$251 503 coins	6.2%	8	8.0	1.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$221 443 coins	7.8%	8	11.5	0.70×
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$112 223 coins	7.9%	18	22.9	0.78×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$63.17 126 coins	8.9%	49	45.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 50	$52.51 105 coins	7.4%	43	45.9	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$48.70 97.39 coins	10.3%	62	68.8	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$44.27 88.53 coins	12.5%	86	91.8	0.94×
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$22.21 44.41 coins	7.8%	135	114.7	1.18×
P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$4.69 9.38 coins	2.0%	126	137.6	0.92×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	76.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	1,756	1743.4	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.7631.52 coins$1,2582,517 coins79.84x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.7631.52 coins$1,2582,517 coins79.84x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$15.7631.52 coins$1,2582,517 coins79.84x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$15.7631.52 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecreturn$15.7631.52 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$15.7631.52 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecMoon1025$15.7631.52 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$15.7631.52 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.76	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%covert knife 2.4%extraordinary 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%restricted 3.0%Legendary 4.0%classified 5.0%industrial 6.0%milspec 76.0%best hit $1,258 (79.84x)