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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.42

32.83 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $14.77 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.40%

631 openings, odds method

Variance

20.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

76.50%±46.27363 openings

30 days

82.40%±35.10631 openings

since tracking started

82.40%±35.10631 openings

-0.5%85.8%172.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	4.60%±166.6	—	odds
7d	363	76.50%±46.3	−0.6σ	odds
30d	631	82.40%±35.1	−0.4σ	odds
All	631	82.40%±35.1	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$760 1,520 coins	5.1%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 667	$701 1,401 coins	7.1%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 400	$579 1,159 coins	9.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$527 1,055 coins	8.9%	3	1.6	1.90×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 400	$481 961 coins	8.1%	4	1.6	2.54×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$402 803 coins	13.6%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$340 680 coins	11.5%	3	3.2	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$276 552 coins	9.3%	1	3.2	0.32×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$231 461 coins	7.8%	1	3.2	0.32×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$118 236 coins	8.0%	3	6.3	0.48×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$85.33 171 coins	5.8%	5	6.3	0.79×
SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	95.0%	$0.76 1.51 coins	4.9%	607	599.4	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold$16.4232.83 coins$7601,520 coins46.30x7d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertiMadyyyy$16.4232.83 coins$7011,401 coins42.68x6d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.4232.83 coins$5271,055 coins32.12x5d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$16.4232.83 coins$5271,055 coins32.12x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$16.4232.83 coins$0.761.51 coins0.05x10h

SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer GradeRavtok$16.4232.83 coins$0.761.51 coins0.05x10h

SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$16.4232.83 coins$0.761.51 coins0.05x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.42	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.1%covert 1.7%epic 0.5%covert knife 0.8%classified 1.0%Classified 1.0%Consumer Grade 95.0%best hit $760 (46.30x)