Degenerate Green

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$206.94

414 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $186.24 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.04%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%135.8%272.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	80.04%±191.4	—	odds
30d	6	80.04%±191.4	—	odds
All	6	80.04%±191.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$3,592 7,183 coins	9.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$3,288 6,576 coins	8.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$2,813 5,625 coins	7.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$2,340 4,679 coins	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$2,338 4,676 coins	6.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$2,135 4,270 coins	5.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 200	$1,885 3,771 coins	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$1,449 2,899 coins	3.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3	13.0%	$202 405 coins	14.1%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	13.0%	$201 402 coins	14.0%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	13.0%	$197 393 coins	13.7%	3	0.8	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	12.0%	$40.72 81.43 coins	2.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	12.0%	$31.71 63.42 coins	2.0%	0	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$1.79 3.57 coins	0.1%	0	0.7	—
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$0.79 1.58 coins	0.1%	1	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.74 1.48 coins	0.0%	0	0.5	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1Apex5887$207414 coins$197393 coins0.95x3d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$207414 coins$197393 coins0.95x3d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$207414 coins$201402 coins0.97x3d

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$207414 coins$0.791.58 coins0.00x3d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3$207414 coins$202405 coins0.98x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$207	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.0%Covert 0.5%epic 0.5%other 13.0%gold 12.0%extraordinary 12.0%restricted 21.0%Mythical 12.0%best hit —