Demon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$580.31

1,161 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $522.28 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

105.76%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

30.0%109.3%188.5%

Small sample. 36 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	109.36%±78.6	—	odds
7d	28	126.74%±51.5	—	odds
30d	36	105.76%±45.4	—	odds
All	36	105.76%±45.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 100,000	$72.4K 144,822 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$9,925 19,850 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$7,335 14,669 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$7,137 14,274 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$6,328 12,655 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 20	$2,656 5,311 coins	25.4%	3	1.8	1.67×
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$1,598 3,196 coins	15.3%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$1,548 3,095 coins	14.8%	2	1.8	1.11×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$1,501 3,002 coins	14.4%	3	1.8	1.67×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$1,263 2,526 coins	12.1%	2	1.8	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby	1 in 20	$607 1,215 coins	5.8%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20	$601 1,202 coins	5.8%	2	1.8	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$595 1,191 coins	5.7%	1	1.8	0.56×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	60.0%	$0.06 0.11 coins	0.0%	21	21.6	0.97×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$5801,161 coins$2,6565,311 coins4.58x31m

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$5801,161 coins$2,6565,311 coins4.58x6d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified$5801,161 coins$1,5983,196 coins2.75x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5801,161 coins$1,5483,095 coins2.67x31m

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5801,161 coins$1,5483,095 coins2.67x20h

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5801,161 coins$1,5013,002 coins2.59x6d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5801,161 coins$1,5013,002 coins2.59x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$5801,161 coins$1,2632,526 coins2.18x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5801,161 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x32m

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$5801,161 coins$6011,202 coins1.04x32m

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5801,161 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x32m

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5801,161 coins$1,5483,095 coins2.67x32m

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$5801,161 coins$2,6565,311 coins4.58x32m

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5801,161 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x32m

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialnigxoo$5801,161 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x32m

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5801,161 coins$1,5483,095 coins2.67x20h

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$5801,161 coins$0.060.11 coins0.00x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$580	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 5.0%covert 15.0%extraordinary 5.0%remarkable 0.0%classified 10.0%Covert 5.0%industrial 60.0%best hit $2,656 (4.58x)