Diamond Rose

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$75.54

151 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $67.98 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

172.40%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

89.5%154.3%219.0%

Small sample. 14 openings and 14.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	14	172.40%±46.0	—	odds
30d	14	172.40%±46.0	—	odds
All	14	172.40%±46.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$1,723 3,447 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$1,448 2,897 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 20,000	$1,405 2,810 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$834 1,669 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 10,000	$809 1,619 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 167	$504 1,008 coins	4.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 167	$503 1,006 coins	4.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 67	$264 527 coins	5.8%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 67	$259 517 coins	5.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 36	$155 310 coins	6.3%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 36	$152 304 coins	6.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	90.3%	$50.22 100 coins	66.7%	11	12.6	0.87×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.