Dirt Cheap
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.11
0.21 coins
Advertised RTP
88.35%
EV $0.09 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.08%
44.9K openings, odds method
Variance
64.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.10 | 88.35% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%classified 3.0%covert knife 0.0%violet 0.0%restricted 3.3%Rare 0.1%Uncommon 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%milspec 5.0%Mythical 5.0%consumer 45.1%#4b69ff 38.0%best hit $137 (1,309x)