Do Not Redeem
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.28
0.55 coins
Advertised RTP
88.52%
EV $0.24 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
66.56%
5,399 openings, odds method
Variance
677.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,407 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 20.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| MP5-SD | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $7.44 14.88 coins | 30.6% | 59 | 54.1 | 1.09× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $5.79 11.57 coins | 23.8% | 44 | 54.1 | 0.81× |
| MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 100 | $3.61 7.22 coins | 14.8% | 51 | 54.1 | 0.94× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 8.3% | 84 | 108.1 | 0.78× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 2.0% | 5,169 | 5136.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.52%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.28 | 88.52% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%industrial 1.0%mil spec 1.0%#8847ff 1.0%restricted 2.0%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit —