Dollar Store

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.04

2.08 coins

Advertised RTP

90.13%

EV $0.94 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.94%

2,566 openings, odds method

Variance

11.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

142 openings · below min

7 days

81.98%±17.081,540 openings

30 days

79.94%±13.232,566 openings

since tracking started

79.94%±13.232,566 openings

24.0%80.8%137.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	142	80.70%±56.3	—	odds
7d	1,540	81.98%±17.1	−0.9σ	odds
30d	2,566	79.94%±13.2	−1.5σ	odds
All	2,566	79.94%±13.2	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,566 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$25.16 50.31 coins	53.7%	41	51.3	0.80×
Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 33	$2.76 5.51 coins	8.8%	76	77.0	0.99×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$2.75 5.49 coins	5.9%	46	51.3	0.90×
SG 553 \| Barricade (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 50	$2.74 5.48 coins	5.8%	50	51.3	0.97×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$2.61 5.22 coins	5.6%	57	51.3	1.11×
AUG \| Spalted Wood (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial	1 in 50	$2.56 5.11 coins	5.5%	45	51.3	0.88×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.65 1.3 coins	3.5%	126	128.3	0.98×
M249 \| Magma (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.65 1.3 coins	3.5%	114	128.3	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.64 1.27 coins	3.4%	136	128.3	1.06×
P2000 \| Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.53 1.06 coins	3.1%	171	141.1	1.21×
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 17	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	164	154.0	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Facility Dark (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	145	154.0	0.94×
Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	145	154.0	0.94×
Negev \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.2%	174	154.0	1.13×
P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.02 0.04 coins	0.1%	152	154.0	0.99×
Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	36.5%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.6%	924	936.6	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$1.042.08 coins$0.010.03 coins0.01x3h

Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.042.08 coins$0.641.27 coins0.61x3h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.042.08 coins$0.651.3 coins0.63x3h

SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.042.08 coins$25.1650.31 coins24.19x3h

AUG | Spalted Wood (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrialkruley$1.042.08 coins$2.565.11 coins2.46x3h

P2000 | Turf (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.042.08 coins$0.531.06 coins0.51x14h

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$1.042.08 coins$0.010.03 coins0.01x14h

Five-SeveN | Withered Vine (Factory New)weapon · UncommonTomas0$1.042.08 coins$2.765.51 coins2.65x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.13%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.04	90.13%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 6.0%Rare 44.0%Uncommon 3.0%classified 2.0%Common 2.0%mil spec 12.0%Industrial 2.0%#4b69ff 11.0%consumer 12.0%industrial 6.0%best hit —