Doomsday
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$59.23
118 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $53.30 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.39%
335 openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 335 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$59.23118 coins$1,3812,761 coins23.31x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$59.23118 coins$1,3812,761 coins23.31x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.23 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.5%Classified 0.5%covert knife 3.0%Covert 4.0%mil spec 5.0%restricted 60.0%classified 16.0%Rare 8.0%best hit $1,381 (23.31x)