Dosage

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$214.70

429 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $193.23 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

150.86%

26 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

54.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

89.5%142.0%194.5%

Small sample. 26 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	26	150.86%±42.9	—	odds
30d	26	150.86%±42.9	—	odds
All	26	150.86%±42.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 10,000	$6,234 12,468 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,638 3,277 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$1,239 2,478 coins	3.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 100	$871 1,742 coins	4.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	11.0%	$534 1,067 coins	30.4%	8	2.9	2.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	11.0%	$506 1,012 coins	28.8%	4	2.9	1.40×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	22.0%	$246 491 coins	28.0%	3	5.7	0.52×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$43.89 87.78 coins	1.4%	1	1.6	0.64×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$25.31 50.62 coins	0.8%	1	1.6	0.64×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$22.69 45.37 coins	0.6%	1	1.3	0.77×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$19.94 39.87 coins	0.5%	1	1.3	0.77×
G3SG1 \| New Roots (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$15.66 31.32 coins	0.4%	2	1.3	1.54×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$5.37 10.74 coins	0.1%	1	1.0	0.96×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$5.03 10.05 coins	0.1%	1	1.0	0.96×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.83 9.65 coins	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	15.4%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2	4.0	0.50×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryTomex$215429 coins$1,2392,478 coins5.77x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBrentson$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryfordtransit$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$215429 coins$5061,012 coins2.36x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$215429 coins$246491 coins1.14x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215429 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$215429 coins$246491 coins1.14x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBrentson$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$215429 coins$19.9439.87 coins0.09x2d

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215429 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryfordtransit$215429 coins$5341,067 coins2.48x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$215	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.0%classified 6.1%extraordinary 17.5%epic 1.0%covert 38.0%mil spec 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Legendary 4.0%Uncommon 4.0%restricted 4.0%consumer 15.4%best hit $1,239 (5.77x)