Double Or Nothing
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,572.48
5,145 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,315.23 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.50%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
46.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
53.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 46.7% | $4,962 9,924 coins | 100.0% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.21× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 53.3% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,572 | 90.00% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 46.7%#4b69ff 53.3%best hit $4,962 (1.93x)