Down Bad
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.13
0.26 coins
Advertised RTP
89.58%
EV $0.12 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.39%
27.1K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
49.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.58%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.13 | 89.58% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 10.1%classified 0.0%covert 0.0%restricted 0.0%blue 12.1%Mythical 1.0%#8847ff 1.0%Rare 11.1%grey 1.0%Uncommon 43.5%#4b69ff 10.1%industrial 10.1%best hit $21.41 (164.7x)