Draft
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.35
32.69 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.71 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.56%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 12.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon$16.3532.69 coins$55.01110 coins3.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.35 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%covert knife 0.3%other 0.4%Immortal 5.0%Mythical 1.5%classified 18.0%Rare 11.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.0%uncommon 4.5%#4b69ff 55.4%best hit —